Retail is the heartbeat of the Scottish economy. However, the retail landscape is experiencing a period of change and the chances are that the big players are the only ones who will prosper.
Retail is one of the key industry sectors in Scotland with approximately 240,000 people employed in the sector, equating to 1 in 10 of the total workforce. However, Scottish retail is currently in a period of intense structural change due to a number of factors. The recent trend for consolidation has seen several takeovers by large consortiums of major high street chains. This is putting increasing pressure on smaller retailers (97% of retailers in Scotland employ less than 50 people). Also, with five interest rate hikes in the last 14 months, consumer confidence and spending is decreasing, which is putting pressure on the retail sector as a whole.
The retail landscape has also altered dramatically in recent years. The emergence of large, out-of-town shopping centres has been pressuring inner city retailers as consumers increasingly move away from city centres due to congestion, high parking costs and a smaller selection of stores resulting from high rental prices that drive retailers to more affordable locations. It is estimated that 90% of retail developments between now and 2011 will be built out of town, away from traditional high street shopping areas.
It remains to be seen how the sector will settle down in years to come. The Scottish National Party has recently come into power and is under pressure to protect local businesses. However, how easy will it be to discourage the major chains and potentially damage their contribution to the Scottish economy? There are great opportunities for strong international chains in Scotland.
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2-May-2008